For My First Trick
I will submit to you a simple premise, that can probably be easily refuted if someone else wants to look up the historical data, but I just decided to do the number-crunching and eyeball-testing on this season.
So my premise is this: Tight ends are taking over the NFL.
As the League has moved away from the ground-and-pound style offense of its early incarnations, teams have had to adapt. Before Ditka in the 60’s, tight ends rarely caught a pass. Until Kellen Winslow, Sr. and his peers began running deep patterns in the 80’s, they mostly caught curl or drag passes. And today, many teams have begun to utilize their tight end for a variety of plays. The Patriots even had Aaron Hernandez taking snaps as an H-back in the playoffs. So if I may throw a few stats at you (since I bothered to research them like a nerd), here we go.
* Of the 12 teams to make the playoffs, only 1 team (Denver) passed to the tight end for less than 750 yards through out the regular season.
* Conversely, of the 20 team who did not make the playoffs, 11 passed to the tight end for less than 750 yards.
* Conversely, of the 20 team who did not make the playoffs, 11 passed to the tight end for less than 750 yards.
* Of the 12 playoff teams, only 3 (Denver, Pittsburgh, Giants) completed less than 7 TD passes to tight ends. Meanwhile, of the 20 non-playoff teams, 1 (Carolina) had more than 7 TDs to tight ends. Three had 7 TDs, while the rest had less.
* The average season totals for playoff teams were 1025 yards on 86 catches, with 9 TDs. So by playoff team, per game, that’s 85 yards on 7 catches, with .75 TDs (Denver really threw off these stats by only having 11 catches for 146 yards and no TDs).
* The average totals for non-playoff teams were 706 yards on 63 catches, with 4 TDs. So, for each of the non-playoff teams, per game, that’s 35 yards on 3 catches, and .21 TDs.
In the playoffs, my stats didn’t hold true in the Wild Card Round, as every team that had less tight end yards won. There were also only 2 TDs among the 8 teams.
However, in the Divisional Round (you know, the teams that didn’t squeak in), the stats did hold up, as each team that won had higher tight end yards (albeit 2 yards more in the Giants case). Also, in this round, the 8 teams combined for 9 TDs (even if 4 of them were the Patriots).
However, in the Divisional Round (you know, the teams that didn’t squeak in), the stats did hold up, as each team that won had higher tight end yards (albeit 2 yards more in the Giants case). Also, in this round, the 8 teams combined for 9 TDs (even if 4 of them were the Patriots).
The Championship Games were split. The Pats had 153 yards but no TDs to the Ravens 64 yards and 1 TD. Meanwhile, the Giants had but 22 yards and a TD while San Francisco got 148 yards and 2 TDs. But then, as we all know, both these games were hairline plays away from going the other way.
The Super Bowl was not the game for the tight ends, as the Pats finished with 93 yards and 1 TD, while the victorious Giants had but 43 yards and no TDs from their tight ends. (Note: I fully expected the outcome of this game to be much different if Gronkowski has been at full speed, as he was responsible for 1327 yards and 17 TDs in the regular season and 258 yards and 3 TDs in 3 playoff games.)
So, as we look to the future of the NFL, I see a change in the way the offense is run. It’s not there yet, but it’s going to be. The tight end is a new position. Guys like Gronkowski,Jermaine Gresham, Hernandez, Kyle Rudolph, and Jimmy Graham are taking it a step further than players like Heath Miller, Todd Heap and Antonio Gates. While the young guys are built much the same way, they seem to be faster and still just as powerful. So while Miller might be able to hit a linebacker and keep going, but not very fast, a guy likeGronkowski has the ability to run over or maybe just out-run that linebacker…and possibly bowl over a safety. They seem to be almost uncoverable 1-on-1 by any defensive player.