I'm going to present some things that Reds fans would say, on the surface, are good things. However, if you delve deeper, these are things that could be cause for concern, create rifts among the fanbase, and ultimately bring about their downfall. I'd also like to put forth solutions for each.
THE GOOD
1. Joey Votto will be back soon.
2. Todd Frazier is doing exceptionally well right now. He should be the NL ROY.
3. Johnny Cueto is pitching lights out right now. So is Aroldis Chapman.
4. The Reds are currently the best team in baseball.
THE BAD
1a. Luckily for the Reds, Joey will be returning post-September 1st. This means he'll essentially be a roster expansion call-up, so they won't have to make a corresponding roster move. But, with the return of Votto, some options will have to be explored as to how to work a line-up card. Some of those issues include: Do they take Stubbs' defense in center even with his batting struggles, or play Heisey or Bruce in center? Should Phillips be leading off? Should Hanigan, with his ability to make contact and get on base, be hitting higher in the line-up? And, how will they ever find a place for Todd Frazier to play every day (because he needs to be). Which leads me to...
2a. Todd Frazier is my NL Rookie of the Year. I dare anyone to look at the stats and bring up Bryce Harper or Wade Miley. The NL ROY is Frazier's to lose right now. And as such, you'd think a ROY candidate should be playing nearly every day. But with the return of Votto, Frazier doesn't have a spot. Does he play left, bumping the powerful Ludwick? Does he play right, in the "shift Bruce to center and bench Stubbs" movement? Does he take the glove, bat, and veteran presence of Rolen off the field at third? It's tough to put him anywhere else. But it's also tough to watch the presumptive ROY riding the pine. Speaking of postseason awards...
3a. Johnny Cueto is the best starting pitcher in baseball. His ERA is nasty. He has the most starter wins in baseball. He very well still could be the best by the end of the year. But, Aroldis Chapman is the best reliever in baseball right now. His strikeout total is over the moon. His ability to not give up runs in unheard of in the era of power-hitters. Oh, and he throws pretty fast too. So they're both in the running for the Cy Young Award. Which means that they very well could screw each other out of it. And now that you mention getting screwed by the system...
4a. The Reds are currently the best team in baseball, according to their record. As such, they would be the number one seed in the playoffs, if they began today. But under the new format for "play-in" Wild Card teams, the number one seed gets the winner of that game, but has to play the first two games of a best-of-five series at the Wild Card team's park. Not a very nice reward for the team with the best record in the league.
MY ANSWERS
1A. As I said, I feel Frazier needs to play. And I feel Ludwick has solidified his spot. So here's how I'd like to see a typical Reds line-up look from now on.
Phillips 4
Cozart 6
Votto 3
Frazier 5
Bruce 9
Hanigan 2
Ludwick 7
Stubbs 8
pitchers spot
I know, Rolen is out. But honestly, Rolen needs to accept his role as a veteran presence on the bench. He's a much better option off the bench than Cairo or Valdez. Scott is 37. He has to know that he's on the decline. I'm sure he's a great guy and a great mentor to Frazier, and that's what the Reds need most right now. I know others will bitch that I left Stubbs on. But he's played 4 years. I think a change in his spot might help get his mind right. Too much pressure at the top of the line-up. But feel free to disagree. Remember how long people were willing to wait on Homer Bailey?
2A. As said in the previous answer, Frazier has to play. I don't think you can move Bruce and lose Stubbs ability to play center, especially this late in the season. And you can't lose Ludwick's pop. So I think going back to third has to be the only logical solution. Sure, he can use a day off and get Rolen in there to get some cuts. But the split needs to be like 80/20 to make sure you're maximizing Frazier's abilities. #FrazierROY
3A. This is the biggest conundrum of them all. Who deserves the Cy Young Award? I feel like the easy answer is both, but I doubt they'd share it. Johnny Cueto has more wins than anyone in the NL. Aroldis Chapman is second in saves by one. Cueto currently has the lowest ERA of all qualified pitchers. Chapman has 113 strikeouts in 60 innings. 3 outs per inning. So of the 180 possible outs Chapman recorded 113 were via strikeout. That's 63%. Comparatively, Cueto has 144 stikeouts in 181.2 IP. So, 545 out chances, and with 144 strikeouts, that's 26%. Chapman gets a lot of cats out via the K. Compelling arguments for both. Which is what worries me. Voters will be divided. Perhaps divided so much that they go for the "compelling story" of R.A. Dickey. I know that teams normally start campaigns to get a player voted for this or that, but I can't see the Reds promoting one player over another. I think if I had to choose today, I'd pick Cueto. But I hope in the end, they go 1-2 in the voting. As long as the Reds win.
4A. Rules is rules. And I can't see the Reds taking a dive to get to the second spot in the playoffs rather than the first, but man, playing on the road for the first two games against a team that barely made the playoffs seems a little unfair. The point of being the number one seed is that you worked your butt off during the regular season and you should be rewarded with a home venue for the playoffs. I know, they play the first two on the road and the last three at home. But those are only if necessary. And I think the fans of the first-seeded team also deserve the ability to see their team as many times as they can during the playoffs. So should the Reds retain first and play the "play-in" winner, we'll see how it all shakes down, but I would hope they would consider a change to the format next year.
No comments:
Post a Comment